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A 2020 View of Metal Additive Manufacturing

Yes, the title is ironic. No view of the future is 20/20, especially ours, although John has been eyeing some 3D printed custom Titanium frames to help sharpen the outlook. In this blog post, we will cast an eye into the future with as many visionary puns as we can frame. In our eyes, 2019 was a pivotal year for AM. AM gained legitimacy in 2017 as a real manufacturing technology, continued to see strong, but likely over-stated valuation and investment in 2018, and 2019 will be remembered as the year businesses decided to treat it as, well, a business. 2020 will be a time to make money with AM. Keep a sharp eye out for continued consolidation as the vast investment in AM has outpaced demand. Finally, we will see a marked change in business needs from people who are seen as “AM evangelists” to true AM practitioners.

Keeping in line with our vision theme, we will break down our 2020 speculations via our usual four (correctional) lenses: Machines, Materials, Digital and People.

Machines

• Machine sales will get tougher as competition increases and the focus on expectations from machine users continues to sharpen. Manufacturers will continue to compare the various Powder Bed Fusion (PBF) offerings with increased competition from the other 6 forms of AM. Knowledge of all forms of AM is growing. Remember those requirements for your application? They weren’t written for PBF exclusively. Fewer companies will buy an AM machine “just to try it out”.

• Productivity will improve. Faster speeds, lower costs, more automation and, best of all, more build analytics will all greatly improve the manufacturer’s life. Increasingly we’ll talk about ‘post processing’ as good old processing, as in part of the manufacturing process. This will be particularly driven by the insertion of process intense technologies like Binder Jetting.

Materials

• The year of more! More AM processes, more materials requirements, more materials! As we seek better analysis and control of AM processes, true understanding of material behavior, including optimization of thermal treatments, will emerge as a way to get more consistency.

• The AM community will seek a better understanding of the powder requirements for the process. This view will be less about controlling costs but about getting the process better under control. The “religion of the round” will be challenged!

Digital

• What’s hard and what’s soft will be less discernable, as we see a convergence of the design and simulation tools into machines and how they operate. The design iteration process to and from CAD should get easier.

• Machine analytics to predict build success and material performance will increase. It’s still blurry; if we really squint, we can see the forms taking shape.

• Our line of sight to material performance data will increase as industry figures out how to pool data and resources.

People

• The fires of AM were lit by the early AM evangelists, but now businesses need true AM practitioners to take them to the next level: sustainable business.

• The need for AM education and awareness across all business functions will increase. After all, AM is a team sport, and it takes a lot more than just engineers to make a business work. This will drive a more focused understanding of what good looks like for AM training and in good pupils.

• Diversity will take a back burner. We’ve been pretty successful at getting younger people to have visions of a career in manufacturing because of AM, but the pressure for profits will challenge how committed companies are to striking a gender balance. We can do more to increase the visibility of females in engineering and key roles to get more high schoolers to take an interest in Engineering curriculum.

• AM will be less special and more specialized. AM will start to be another tool in the manufacturing toolbox with less anxiety over how to traverse the paths of qualification and certification; the lingering flames blazed by the first applications will be there as a guide. The boutique conferences will wane and your ability to go to an AM exclusive event every week will decrease. AM will go more application specific, so we might see each other less, but when we do, it will be special.

Like growing up or getting glasses, we are in a bittersweet transition for AM. AM no longer gets by with just being special and new, it now must make business sense. As we set our sights on 2020, don’t despair if your AM vision is still a bit blurry. As John’s boss from Skunk Works used to say, “it’s all about the journey,” and how we react to it.

Written by Laura Ely and John Barnes of The Barnes Group Advisors.

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Formnext 2019: A lot of new players, but where is the business value?

As the end of the year approaches, the additive manufacturing industry gathers in Frankfurt for the biggest event of the year: Formnext. For a week in November, the entire world of additive manufacturing, machine vendors, material providers, post-processing specialists, service bureaus and software developers showcase their latest products and development.

Like every year it’s the occasion for the traditional actors to show that they are the big players and compete on having the biggest stand of the show, and for everybody to unveil their latest machine, material, software, or partnership. It is the main occasion for companies to make announcements and to shine in front of an ever-expanding crowed of professional visitors.

The 2019 edition of this yearly gathering was by far the biggest ever: 852 exhibitors representing 35% growth over the previous year and 34,500 visitors; 28% more than last year. In order to accommodate everybody, this year’s Formnext was split into four halls. It would take several days for a visitor to view and interact with all the companies exhibiting.

At Blueprint we try to keep a close eye on the industry, staying close to the news to be informed of the latest developments, new machines, and new companies on the market, but we were surprised by the number of company names we didn’t recognize. One might think that most of the new companies would be Asian companies trying to expand to the European market, but talking with the different newcomers we learned that a large number were established European machine tool specialists entering additive manufacturing. We were surprised to see the number of new machines that were very similar to existing technologies and very few new manufacturing processes. While the 2013 hype brought a lot of very similar desktop 3D printers, the recent news about AM successes in the end-use part manufacturing seems to have catalyzed a focus on new machines designed for manufacturing. While some are copying existing machines, including the same naming conventions, others are trying to keep the costs down by using standard off-the-shelf components. Surprisingly, every machine seems to have a level of engineering suggesting that heavy investment has been put into the projects; these are industrial companies making machines, not start-ups with little engineering experience and Kickstarter funding. But even with that obvious substantial investment, it is disappointing that the majority stick to imitating technologies invented 20 years ago rather than being truly innovative.

Stepping away from the actual machines and focusing on the parts on display, we started to have a very familiar feeling. While in the past some vendors have been guilty of showcasing parts made on competitors’ machines because their machine wasn’t ready, we don’t think that was the case here. The parts on display looked great, but a lot of them were just generic 3D printed designs available online, made to showcase the freedom of design of 3D printing but not demonstrating anything about the applications enabled by their machine. Once again this points to a lack of imagination and experience of those companies, most of them thinking they can just repeat what the competition has been doing years ago in order to be successful.

Just like that, we felt we were 5 years back in time, back when machine vendors slowly started to transition from prototyping machines to manufacturing machines. The biggest change was how manufacturers talk about their machines’ capabilities. While in the past we would hear about layer thickness, speed, heat tolerance, or strength, the conversation has evolved with the change of target market. When you are prototyping, you need machine capacity and you want to have a machine as flexible as possible to make the most diverse range of prototypes possible. Manufacturers are not inspired by the machine and material capacity, but more by the applications that machines enable. The message “Our new material has a heat deflection temperature of 150°C” became “Our material enables production of composite tooling for this type of resin matrix.”

In order to present machines as manufacturing tools, the established players have shifted to the business value proposition; most of them were showcasing case studies where a part enabled a customer to save money, compress a supply chain, or improve workers conditions. They were not selling machines but selling a solution to business problem using a machine.

On that front, we saw that many of the newcomers were at a disadvantage. None of them seemed to have figured out their differentiators or value propositions. Many are still trying to make machines to do everything and their only way to compete with the established players is on price. When price is your only differentiator, the only way to gain market share is to lower your price. Starting a race to the bottom is rarely a good idea, especially in a market as competitive as the additive manufacturing industry. We saw this happen to the desktop 3D printer market a few years ago and we can predict that a lot of the new entrants probably won’t exist anymore in a couple of years’ time.

Assuming the same 10% growth of the last 5 years, the number of industrial unit sales for 2020 is expected to be around 22,000. If we remove the market shares from historical players, large companies and unicorn startups, that leaves about 4,500 units to be sold worldwide by the new actors. Based on the Formnext 2019 exhibitor list, there are about 300 companies selling machines. That leaves each of these companies selling about 15 units with an average price of $50k.

Is an average revenue of $750k enough to keep most of those companies on the market? The answer to that question should be self-evident. Talking with people on the stands, we learned that some employees haven’t been paid for a few months, while other companies are hoping they can ship a machine by the end of next year. Even companies that investors have judged as successful by giving them unicorn status are struggling to get their machines out of the door. It is not rare to have to wait a couple of years between a machine announcement and the first public machine being installed. This is due to the complexity of having a capable and reliable machine suited for the industrial market. Showing that you can print a part is not enough for manufacturing; you must demonstrate that you can reach the same tolerances continuously. Cashflow then becomes critical for companies without initial backing. We suspect that the business plan of some of the new entrants might be to make announcement and enough noise to raise funding or be acquired. This can have a detrimental impact on our industry as it creates noise and confusion that distract potential customers from the real applications. We have seen many times customer deciding against buying a current, proven machine because they are waiting for the competitors one which was announced a year ago and is not coming out for another year.

Similar to the desktop market back in 2013, we can expect difficult times ahead for those newcomers and very fierce competition in the industrial market. With all the new entrants competing with very similar technology, the ones that can identify a clear differentiator and have a clear message on how they can solve a business problem will be the ones who stay afloat. Indeed, everyone needs to continue to improve additive manufacturing’s value proposition; remember, we are a small industry— 0.02% of manufacturing. Some say that 99.9% of people don’t understand 3D printing. This “noise” will hurt our industry; as professionals in the additive manufacturing space, it is our job to help articulate business value and educate our customers.

Loïc Le Merlus (Manager)

Loic leads the development of Blueprint’s algorithms that drive our proprietary analysis tools. He also works closely with many of our clients to analyze complex data and understand the economic impact that 3D printing and additive manufacturing could have on their businesses. In other words, he puts the numbers behind the hype. Loic has over 9 years leading projects to quantify the impact of the technology, working with users and vendors across the additive manufacturing industry.

Blueprint is an additive manufacturing consultancy, bringing together more than 15 years of knowledge and experience across the industry. As the world’s leading additive manufacturing consultancy, Blueprint regularly assists future-ready companies achieve additive success. Based in Eden Prairie, Minn., and Milford, U.K, the firm offers a unique, technology-agnostic perspective on all things additive, from strategic advice to design optimization services. More information is available online at www.additiveblueprint.com.

If you want to discuss this article or your additive manufacturing strategy, the team at Blueprint is here to help. Let’s say hello.

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SmarTech Analysis Launches New Data Product Addressing Parts Produced by Additive Manufacturing

Industry analyst firm SmarTech Analysis today announced a new data product geared towards addressing the critical metric of additively manufactured parts produced. The Additive Manufacturing Applications Market Analysis Report is a first of its kind analysis looking into how the world’s users of both private and publicly accessible additive manufacturing machines are being utilized by providing a market forecast and valuation on the market value of top applications in the world of additive manufacturing in professional and industrial use environments.

The data is set to be released the week of October 21^,2019. You can learn more here.

About the Report:

This database and study tracks and reports on volumes of additively manufactured parts being produced today across numerous key industries, including parts produced by various AM service providers as well as private OEMs and suppliers in each market, split amongst the currently identified and expected future leading use cases for various AM technologies.

Users of this report and database will have access to forecast projections and current-day estimates of the volumes and total market value of all parts produced via AM in a given industry, within various print technologies, material types, and, most importantly, part functionality and type. Those stakeholders with an interest in evaluating various key use cases for specific types of AM technology, AM materials, or broader end-user markets, will be able to utilize this database to help identify market strategies to guide product development and go-to-market in the ever growing world of additive.

“As the additive manufacturing business moves towards more wide-spread production basis, it is crucial for stakeholders to be able to identify addressable markets and implement strategies to guide product development and drive go-to-market efforts, so says Scott Dunham, VP of Research at SmarTech Analysis.” “This unique data product was developed to support clients looking for deeper reporting and analysis of machine outputs beyond simple prototyping, tooling and parts metrics.”

SmarTech has previously provided opportunity analysis in the areas of sales of additive manufacturing systems, additive manufacturing materials, software, and outsourced production services. This database and report expand the universe of market opportunity analysis for additive manufacturing to cover the total and forecasted addressable markets for specific additively manufactured parts and part categories.

The database includes, but is not limited to, the listing of specific coverages for part and part categories shown in the table below. Each of these areas and more are tracked and forecasted by individual supporting print technology, material type, and region.

The database can be purchased as a complete unit or via individual verticals listed below:

Aerospace
Automotive
Consumer Goods
Dental
Energy
General Industry
Medical
Others

3DPrint.com is an equity owner of Smartech.

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One Thing That We Can Still Not 3D Print is the Balance Sheet

Build your future today.

With all the progress in 3D printing, we must remind ourselves to stay humble. We are in a very capable industry with accelerating growth and adoption rates. In the eyes of many, we’ve gone from spielerei to potential manufacturing tool in only a few short years. With new materials, applications, research, and processes being released every day being in 3D printing now can be a bit heady. We must be mindful of the fact that a lot of the research that we’re seeing will not peter out. We have already left many a disappointed project and implementation in our wake. Not all of the centers for excellence will be excellent, and many cut ribbons will fray. Once the cameras have stopped flashing and the ink of the headlines bleeds into landfill, what will remain of our momentum? This is something that we can not know. At the same time boosters, liars and fantasists will continue to spin their untruths, and we will continue to be assaulted by headlines that lie and incompetent journalists who fabricate articles to placate PR reps. These actions can harm us especially today as we move from prototype makers to making mission-critical parts. As a side note, we alone in this industry fact check and try to write for readers in an unbiased and truthful way. If you should at any point have an issue with any of our words, please do let me know at joris@3Dprint.com. We are aiming to be your consistent source of useful information, so please keep us to a high standard.

Sure the stairs are rickety but you’ll get used to them.

At the moment 3D printing is an archipelago of good news islands. Amidst our joy and expansion, our future looks bright. One thing that we have not yet managed to 3D print, however, is the balance sheet. Yes, people are enthusiastic about 3D printing. C-Level people are promoting our technology internally while firms and countries see us as strategic. As we know, there are real advantages to in some cases using 3D printing. We can accelerate the time to market of parts and make geometries that others can not. We can iterate, test and improve parts more. We can shorten development times, development costs and dependencies in engineering projects. We can integrate new functionality into parts and reduce part count. We can create parts that save weight or through better surface texture increase part performance. We have not yet proven where exactly we can do this for many end-use parts. Apart from orthopedics, dental and hearing aids there is currently scant evidence that we can make a difference when we scale to millions of parts. We’re all, of course, confident that we will get there in the end but optimism is not what keeps airliners up ten kilometers above us. Now is the time when the rubber meets the road and when we will have to prove our mettle in the boardroom and on concrete floors.

Look at how much fun they’re having.

The next few years will determine if we will inhabit a few perfectly suited niches or become a much larger manufacturing technology. Will we only do fit technologies such as hearing aids, glasses, personalized implants, insoles, and some sports equipment along with space and aviation? To be fair, this would be a nicely profitable chunk of barriers to entry stuff to have. On the other hand, we could become huge in the automotive and other industries. There’s an issue however with this holding us back. Apart from the aforementioned optimism of our potential and the whirl of a knotted yarn around “complexity is free” there is little actual financial information on 3D printing business cases. What is out there is based on single parts or choice examples (with a lot of it being utter codswallop). We know that the business case is indeed there in acetabular cups which could be around six to eight times cheaper than conventionally made parts but where is the data for us to look at? Locked in ivory towers with a wisp of blonde hair enticing us to climb upward, Rapunzel keeps her secrets.

Feel free to practice. Visualization is everything.

Where is the definitive business case with all of the relevant numbers for acetabular cups? How about our other great live success, hearing aids? We know that these individualized parts are cost-effective but where are the complete cost estimates and where is the data? We’re not, as an industry providing our champions with enough ammo to convince boardrooms that we are worth investing in. They’re doing all of this stuff on a hope and a prayer delivered through a powerpoint slide. We could calculate the total cost saved per replacement part for specific technologies or share numbers on what weight and other savings actually mean. I still believe that by realistically looking at how much capital is tied up in inventory and spare parts companies could become significantly more profitable through adopting 3D printing. But, belief will not power an aero engine. Finance professionals, consultants, and accountants are taking an interest in our industry. But, they do nothing publicly to make the business case for 3D printing. Some half-truths, recycled ideas, and a buzzword or two blended together is what powers their engagements. They call them engagements by the way because it means they’re screwing you consistently. Where are the best and the brightest minds in all of Excel-world? And why are they not crunching the numbers to 3D print the balance sheet so that corporate leaders can pull the trigger in a meaningful way on transformative 3D printing projects? The one thing we’ve consistently not been able to 3D print is the balance sheet. Who will be the team that actually looks at 3D printing in depth and secures themselves a future in being the lighthouse that safely guides corporates through their 3D printing journey? There is enough money to be had for those who can deliver on conjecture.

Images CC Attribution: Marcus Eigenheer, Shine 2010, Roderick Eime, Tom.

Interview with Vinod Devan of Deloitte on Their 3D Printing Approach

With 3D printing moving towards broader adoption many companies are now entering our market. One of these is Deloitte. The professional services firm that does everything from accounting to tax and M&A also wants to guide firms into the 3D printing world. We interviewed Vinod Devan, Product Strategy and Operations Lead at Deloitte Consulting to see what the firm’s plans are in 3D printing and how it hopes to help customers.

Why is Deloitte entering the 3D printing market?

Additive manufacturing (AM) is a critical component of the Industry 4.0 digital transformation.AM technology is finally at the point where companies are starting to realize significant, tangible, new value for themselves and their customers. Deloitte is making significant investments in 3D printing knowledge and capabilities so that we can advise and join with our clients as they revolutionize supply chains, product portfolios, and business models.

What competencies does the team have?

At Deloitte, we have incredible depth in supply chain and manufacturing and have been helping companies digitize their operations.This includes product design and development, manufacturing, production design, and in-market management – all of which are impacted by AM. Through our growing ecosystem of collaborators and global alliances with leading hardware and software players in this space, we bring a holistic view of the benefits and impacts of AM and complementary digital technologies.

What kind of projects have you done with customers?

Our projects generally fall into three buckets: Helping clients who are new to additive manufacturing enter the space in a strategic manner, helping clients operationalize and scale their existing – but relatively foundational – AM efforts, and helping clients that are already mature in AM transform and optimize end to end product and supply chain operations. Regardless of the project type, we strive to strike a balance between technical feasibility, business viability, and customer desirability. This approach is necessary for a ‘play to win’ strategy in AM.

What advice could you give me if I was a large manufacturing company and I’d want to get started with 3D printing?

Start small and focus on high value areas – this could be rapid prototyping, production of spare parts, or tooling components.Use this exercise to get comfortable with the technology, economics, and value of 3D printing. Build a roadmap to demonstrate success, and keep expanding the AM applications portfolio within your enterprise. Don’t treat AM as a fad; it will change manufacturing in unprecedented ways.

What application areas do you see opening up?

Over the next three to five years, we expect growth and scale in applications that are gaining significant traction today – long tail spare parts, tooling, bridge production, product personalization, and mass customization.

What are the next products that will be industrialized with 3D printing?

Automotive and large manufacturing companies are leading the industrialization of AM, due to the significant cost savings associated with digitizing their inventory. Consumer products and med tech companies benefit from the high degree of cost-effective personalization that AM offers. The range of products that will be additively manufactured will depend on the rate of development of specialized materials, adoption of the digital thread, integration of digital security to protect IP, certification of AM products by regulatory agencies, and perhaps most importantly, the willingness of innovative executives who choose to be bullish on digitizing their businesses.

What are some of the technologies that you’re most interested in?

The ability to 3D print has been around for a long time. While recent developments in AM are certainly encouraging and exciting, the development of complementary technologies that accelerate and expand the value of AM are very interesting. These include IoT, data analytics, and AR/VR. Together with AM, these technologies unlock the true potential of Industry 4.0.

What are some key developments in 3D printing materials?

Materials are definitely on the critical path for large-scale adoption of additive manufacturing. Getting AM products to be the same or better than those produced by legacy manufacturing processes often comes down to material science and engineering. Given the unique requirements for each application, we are seeing material producers develop new strategies and even new business ventures to not just develop specialty materials, but also to provide supplemental services that accelerate the adoption of their materials.

What are the key stumbling blocks in 3D printing implementations?

There are two primary stumbling blocks – the first is companies that don’t believe that AM is finally here, not just hype. Current manufacturing processes have been around for a lot longer than AM and have reached a high degree of efficiency and optimization. AM has been touted as disrupting those legacy models for almost three decades, but has fallen short until very recently. There is an entrenched mindset that will require a cultural shift to facilitate adoption. The second stumbling block is the lack of a holistic approach to AM. There is a tendency by executives and engineers to focus on either cost or quality or some other standalone benefit. That results in a narrow adoption strategy, which often does not yield sufficient value to justify additional investment.

A lot of people can never tell me how much a 3D printed part costs. How much would a 3D Printed pen cost? How many could I make a day?

Cost and volume questions are valid, but the answers vary greatly by technology, material, and process. And in our opinion, they do not provide sufficient information when evaluating 3D printing. Along with the cost elements (once to determine how you intend to print a part), other important questions should be considered. For example, could a 3D printed pen function BETTER than a traditional pen? Could it be lighter weight? Could it be personalized to the user? Could you sell more of a 3D printed pen relative to a regular pen because of its added value? Would the lifecycle cost – not just a production cost – of the pen be lower?

What products would make sense for 3D printing, which would not?

Despite the advancements in recent years, some limitations remain. For example, products or parts that exceed the optimal build size of current machines can’t be printed. Products in sectors with heavy regulatory oversight and lengthy certification processes make the scaled adoption of 3D printing a cumbersome exercise. Products that cannot be accommodated by today’s material set require additional design cycles to determine feasibility. Like with any disruptive technology, the number of products that can be “onboarded” to AM will increase exponentially as demand increases.