A 2020 View of Metal Additive Manufacturing

Yes, the title is ironic. No view of the future is 20/20, especially ours, although John has been eyeing some 3D printed custom Titanium frames to help sharpen the outlook. In this blog post, we will cast an eye into the future with as many visionary puns as we can frame. In our eyes, 2019 was a pivotal year for AM. AM gained legitimacy in 2017 as a real manufacturing technology, continued to see strong, but likely over-stated valuation and investment in 2018, and 2019 will be remembered as the year businesses decided to treat it as, well, a business. 2020 will be a time to make money with AM. Keep a sharp eye out for continued consolidation as the vast investment in AM has outpaced demand. Finally, we will see a marked change in business needs from people who are seen as “AM evangelists” to true AM practitioners.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Keeping in line with our vision theme, we will break down our 2020 speculations via our usual four (correctional) lenses: Machines, Materials, Digital and People.

Machines

Machine sales will get tougher as competition increases and the focus on expectations from machine users continues to sharpen. Manufacturers will continue to compare the various Powder Bed Fusion (PBF) offerings with increased competition from the other 6 forms of AM. Knowledge of all forms of AM is growing. Remember those requirements for your application? They weren’t written for PBF exclusively. Fewer companies will buy an AM machine “just to try it out”.

• Productivity will improve. Faster speeds, lower costs, more automation and, best of all, more build analytics will all greatly improve the manufacturer’s life. Increasingly we’ll talk about ‘post processing’ as good old processing, as in part of the manufacturing process. This will be particularly driven by the insertion of process intense technologies like Binder Jetting.

Materials

• The year of more! More AM processes, more materials requirements, more materials! As we seek better analysis and control of AM processes, true understanding of material behavior, including optimization of thermal treatments, will emerge as a way to get more consistency.

• The AM community will seek a better understanding of the powder requirements for the process. This view will be less about controlling costs but about getting the process better under control. The “religion of the round” will be challenged!

Digital

• What’s hard and what’s soft will be less discernable, as we see a convergence of the design and simulation tools into machines and how they operate. The design iteration process to and from CAD should get easier.

Machine analytics to predict build success and material performance will increase. It’s still blurry; if we really squint, we can see the forms taking shape.

Our line of sight to material performance data will increase as industry figures out how to pool data and resources.

People

• The fires of AM were lit by the early AM evangelists, but now businesses need true AM practitioners to take them to the next level: sustainable business.

• The need for AM education and awareness across all business functions will increase. After all, AM is a team sport, and it takes a lot more than just engineers to make a business work. This will drive a more focused understanding of what good looks like for AM training and in good pupils.

Diversity will take a back burner. We’ve been pretty successful at getting younger people to have visions of a career in manufacturing because of AM, but the pressure for profits will challenge how committed companies are to striking a gender balance. We can do more to increase the visibility of females in engineering and key roles to get more high schoolers to take an interest in Engineering curriculum.

AM will be less special and more specialized. AM will start to be another tool in the manufacturing toolbox with less anxiety over how to traverse the paths of qualification and certification; the lingering flames blazed by the first applications will be there as a guide. The boutique conferences will wane and your ability to go to an AM exclusive event every week will decrease. AM will go more application specific, so we might see each other less, but when we do, it will be special.

Like growing up or getting glasses, we are in a bittersweet transition for AM. AM no longer gets by with just being special and new, it now must make business sense. As we set our sights on 2020, don’t despair if your AM vision is still a bit blurry. As John’s boss from Skunk Works™ used to say, “it’s all about the journey,” and how we react to it.

Written by Laura Ely and John Barnes of The Barnes Group Advisors.

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Fast Things 8: The Shape Game and Mrs. Incredible

Imagine the answer to life, the universe, and everything is: donut.

In a world of Fast Things, 3D Printing is the logical production technology. With our technology, you can go from idea to file to part quicker than with alternatives. If your idea, file, or part changes, it will also take you less time to get to a new part. If you want to make a million identical copies of something then injection molding, for one, would be a much better technology. It is very good at making a million of something, once you have made the tooling and the mold. In this instance, injection molding is far cheaper per part. The set up in time and cost is considerable, however. 3D Printing will give you a higher per part cost, but this cost will be approximately the same should you want a million unique things.

In a one size fits all world, injection molding is still king. But, if time, shape or texture force you to make a few of something 3D Printing becomes the only viable option. With 3D Printing, you can produce one or a few of something with a particular shape at a specific time. So the question “when will 3D printing go mainstream” is a fundamentally incorrect one. It is a sure sign of a mind who has not been opened to the fundamental possibilities that 3D Printing will unlock.

When does a computer make sense for adding up sums? For most sums that we do a calculator would still be far superior and faster. A piece of paper and a sound mind would have outperformed computers for a reasonable length of time if the time to input the calculation were taken into account. When does it make sense to buy a computer for adding up things? In isolation, never I should think. Only for niche things like figuring out the yield of a nuclear weapon or the weather would such a device warrant an investment. Unless of course, the advent of such a computing device ignites the imaginations of many to the possibility of adding up the hereto un-addable.

If we start to then think of calculating the cost of all of our products or tracking all of the things that we sell in an efficient way our mind opens to the possibilities of increasing our profitability using computers. Perhaps for calculating stuff, it doesn’t make sense, but if we wanted to calculate everything, it may. The universal calculation machine is, therefore, a receptacle of unmet needs in calculation. The incalculable becomes what drives adoption for such a device. But, at this point, it is the most part, like many technologies, hope, and spielerei.

The thing that starts to make the machine powerful is the realization that the input cards are not just grist for the mill. The stuff that you have to do in order to get the computer to do anything is not only a protocol to be followed. Instead, this is a key to getting a universal calculation machine to in a versatile and rapid manner make all kinds of calculations. The manipulation of software and code is a revolution.

The first revolution of language let us communicate with each other through speech. The second let us store and disseminate writing through Printing. In the third, we learned to speak the language of the universe: maths. The fourth is the language of building in the universe: engineering. In the fifth we learned the language for manipulating the universe: chemistry and the sixth is the language of inception and destruction physics. The seventh language is that now Babylonian mess that is those languages of the computer that let us speak and calculate in all of the aforementioned. 3D Printing combined with CAD is the language of form, the eighth. It lets us at a higher abstraction level at different magnifications describe and create forms that exist, manipulate, and function in the world.

This may all sound a tad vague and perhaps a little bit ganja around the Goan bonfire kind of stuff. I do believe that this metaphor has merit, however. I’ve been trying to explain, unsuccessfully, the impact of 3D Printing for over a decade. And you know what? I suck at it. Even at hype’s apex, people were excited for all the wrong reasons. Yes, this is vague, but at this abstraction level, I can at least make a stab at getting you to understand why nothing will be the same again.

If we create forms, not calculations, drawings, 3D models, databases, then the world is approachable not through data or mathematics but through mimicking, designing, doodling, randomly getting, intuiting, having algorithms make, brute force creating a shape. Imagine the answer to life the universe, and everything is: donut. Imagine that you had no idea how a plane works, but you could make a lighter one by following the same set of rules as you do through making lighter chairs. Imagine that you could take a hole punch to a building and it becomes a better building. Imagine that you could not know any chemistry, engineering or physics but through a random shape generator come up with a better shampoo, nuclear reactor or Formula One engine. Imagine all the bets are off, and all the things are plastic. People often wonder if 3D Printing will make designers obsolete. Well, what if it makes everyone who is not a designer obsolete?

Jeff Bezos has to know very little about fashion to conquer the clothing market. He doesn’t need to know how to make cotton, dye it, or make a sock to sell millions of them. He doesn’t need a clothing brand, a factory, or an ounce of product. Nor does he need to know anything about tea, teapots, knives, closets or watches. He needs people to build him an unending river of commerce that they can then use to sell everything and anything to everyone. Yes, Amazon has marketing people and HR, but their power is through the creation of systems that sell products.

Similarly, Google does not have to know anything; it just has to be able to make coherent all the information that there is through it. Facebook did not need to know you; you would tell it everything so that it could connect you with those that you already knew. In each of these cases, a powerful idea coupled with capital and code became an incredibly large business.

The work in the trenches was done by those who code. Code and the internet shaped these ideas into industry killers. But the internet concerns itself chiefly with access to people and information; stripping the layers of sales channels away to create billions of dollars in reappropriated collated information which now has value for the organizer. There are exceptions of course, but generally, this is the way of the internet. Famously one of the largest hotel booking sites in the world has no hotels, nor do they know how to operate them, nor do they have to buy them. The new way is not only faster but also more efficient because, by design, the startup goes for matching demand, circumventing the problematic and capital intensive stuff.

Imagine in a similar way that you could use the pure form to enter any industry. Imagine that by designing the right shape to solve a problem, you could compete with most products. Imagine that you would not need to understand the shape or the problem or the solution necessarily. The shape only would have to work. I don’t have to understand women, men, love, or dating to have the worlds most successful dating site. My skillset is just in creating a platform that brings enough needs together for them to coalesce into a solution that is better than anyone else’s.

Dr. J.W. Mauchly with the electronic computing machine known as the ENIAC.

3D Printing is technology where we can in a timely way, make a vast variety of different shapes efficiently based on a file or an idea. And should the file, idea or shape not suffice; quicker than alternative technologies we can make a new version. So just like all bugs are shallow given enough eyeballs, all things are shallow given enough eyeballs as well. We do not have to understand your industry, or engineering, or physics, or things to create better solution shapes to your problem. We can simply plug away at it, test and make new things quicker than you. As a code based internet startup leverages attention and users to match solutions we have to in a brute force way to test enough shapes for fitness and then produce the winners. If we intuit a solution or can skip some steps through experience or physics knowledge, that is fine. But strictly speaking, we can be ignorant of anything except for the shape game to ultimately succeed.

Many an engineering, chemistry, or business problem is a shape looking for a solution or a problem looking for the right shape to solve it; and this is the true value of 3D Printing. Don’t be a pirate or a ninja; be Mrs. Incredible.

Flickr: Tom Page, Matt Gibson, Tulio Saba. Richard Gillin, Andy L.

The 3D Printing Octagon  

A few years ago I started to think of 3D printing as a triangle where you had to control for each part of the delta: software, machines, and materials. I’ve now come to realize that it is more complex still. In order to get true repeatability, reliability and throughput in high-quality parts we have to from concept to customer consider the most significant influences on 3D printing.  We have to each of us, whether we be users, OEMs, manufacturers have to look at 3D printing holistically, and take into account how our inputs affect all others. Only by controlling for all sides of the 3D Printing Octagon can we ultimately succeed in 3D printing parts reliably and repeatably at scale.

People have been trying to reduce the influence of variables on 3D printed parts since the technology began. But, initially, it was one OEM who made the machine, sold the materials and made the software (or at least influenced these things). Companies like Stratasys and 3D Systems could coordinate all of the settings and variables to come up with coherent 3D prints. Their level of control meant that parts came out the right way every time. The current 3D printing landscape consists of this Closed way of doing things but also an Open Ecosystem. And let’s be frank guys, the Open Ecosystem is currently a mess. Everyone is just winging it. People are building systems willy-nilly without much a thought to the importance of software. A lot of OEMs have very little understanding of firmware and the effects of that on prints. Materials companies just throw stuff over the hedge with settings such as between 200 and 230 C? You’re joking right, would that work if I were baking a cake? Part of that problem is due to run to run differences on machines. Often machines can be found to have temperature differences at the nozzle of 10 to 15 degrees. So the temperature that you’re printing at is probably not the temperature you’re actually printing at. A knock on effect of this is that a lot of 3D printing research is junk because it doesn’t correct for these temperature differences. There is variability also in the torque of the mostly totally crappy stepper motors we use as well. Open printers have huge influences from airflow, ambient temperature, and humidity. Often there are considerable temperature fluctuations in a build chamber during a build. We all just random walkaly try to solve the bed adhesion issues as if it were second grade and we’re playing with glue-sticks. There are inconsistencies in procedures as well. Settings on the printer are dealt with if they’re some kind of dadaist art form with everyone semi-randomly changing retraction, speeds and extrusion power. Gcode and the way the nozzle actually builds up a part has effects which are not addressed. Design for 3D printing is something that is being made up as we go along but is hampered because we make up new terms for everything. We can’t even agree to all use Material Extrusion, FDM, FFF or whatever to describe the different technologies. We don’t have a universal accuracy measurement or a way to test 3D printer performance. Most dogbones are printed in vain due to inconsistencies in testing methodology. Kids, it’s time to put down the screwdrivers for a moment and work together.

1. Standardization & Testing. We need to adopt the same terminology, procedures, tests, and standards if we are to advance. I know this is boring, but it is also essential. If we don’t do this, then there is no way through which we can collectively advance the industry. Furthermore, a lot of inefficiencies will be created while everyone tries to build their platform. We can opt for, or a “chaotic everyone do their own thing industry” if we want, but we would get to better parts quicker by working together. You see, you may think you’re competing against one another, but this is not true. What we’re competing with is injection molding, clay, welding or any other manufacturing technology. We have to make 3D printing more viable for more things. That way we all profit. The more things we can make reliably; the more valuable and desirable our machines, materials, and software will be. I’ve said this before but you are not Boeing, and the other guy is not Airbus. There are 7 billion people on this planet that do not use 3D printing, the ones that do for business or at home are essentially a rounding error. We can perhaps now make only around 2% of all the things in the world. It is by activating more people on 3D printing and by making more prints possible that we all advance. Meanwhile a lot of you hawkeyed look at the other guy like we’re some mature no-growth industry. Stop with this nonsense, but rather help us make us the answer to all the things that do not exist yet.

After we, hopefully, standardize our nomenclature and testing we should come to grips with the other sides of the 3D Printing octagon. If we want to produce parts reliably, we will need to realize that there are seven sides to this problem and that they all have to be understood and controlled for 3D printing to work well. If we industrialize, we will have to control for and master the entire octagon. Lack of understanding of one or more elements of the octagon means that we will screw up at one point. This is all well and dandy for your Yoda head but not for my 3D printed heart. This is the future guys, and the future sucks because it will have a lot of statistics in it, graphs and clipboards.

2. Machine & Slicer Settings The machine settings influence how quickly a part is printed at what speed the head moves and at what temperature the nozzle extrudes. Settings have direct effects on wall slip, pressure and the voxel as it is being built. Individual settings such as retraction work in concert with and have significant feedback loops with other parameters such as speed, feeder setting, feeder speed, etc. These settings also cannot be universally applied and do not have consistent effects. E.g., differences in filament roundness can interfere with consistent extrusion and mask optimal extrusion speeds or differences in filament surface finish can cause different optimal feeder settings. Settings are often user tweaked in isolation, and the user often feels as if they are “learning how to 3D print” whereas in actuality they are continually compensating for other misunderstood differences in environment, material or design. Incorrect and inconsistent use of settings leads to many print failures and is the chief reason why 3D printing is advancing slower than it should on the desktop. It’s as if we’re all trying to bake cakes, but no one ever writes down a recipe or even defines what boiling or icing means. In this case, I’ve lumped together slicer and machine settings because they work in concert and are both open to user input often to that user’s detriment.

3. Machine & Environment  By machine we mean here the actual positioning, movement, and print process that the machine parts are doing at any one time. In this sense lack of calibration, calibration procedure or run to run differences inhibit precision. Through machine, we also mean the internal surfaces in the machine, especially where melt occurs. The pressure in the nozzle, as well as the surfaces of these critical pathways, are little understood. We will need to grasp these effects much more precisely. Understanding settings are also in and of themselves useless if the machine inconsistently acts upon these settings.

We must control the machine in order for it to build parts. We must also manage the environment. At one point, hopefully, all printers will be closed, and we’ll breathe in fewer fumes and get better print results. We have to control airflows, laminar flow, heat, ambient temperature and humidity if we are to print consistently. Right now people are spoiling their datasets by printing near windows or with heat changes in their buildings. We need to bring down the excessive number of variables and their effects significantly.  

4. Material Material roundness and diameter has significant effects on nozzle pressures and misprints. The temperature that materials have to be extruded at to get optimal layer adhesion is often also not precisely understood or communicated. There are also many material dependent settings and differences. Some materials require fans to be at 100% some print better when they are off. The interplay between materials and settings with the complex feedback loops occurring there are not understood by industry. Often much instruction and expounding on optimal settings are not much better than guesswork. The correct applications of the right material for the correct part is also not communicated. Polymer companies toss resin pellets at extrusion companies that gleefully catch this manna from heaven before extruding it, rolling it up and frisbeeing that at an OEM. OEM’s copy paste some info and pass it on to users. No one speaks the same language, and no one understands each other. Additives, grades, and polymers themselves can have massive effects. Many users are not even aware that colorants mean that different PLA’s from the same vendor print best at different nozzle temperatures.

Through this five hundred million dollar whispering word game, the user is left with some marketing slogans and imprecise guidance on when to use a material and how to print it. OEMs and retailers want better printability, and by putting them in the driving seat, we’ve set the “spreadability” of butter as the main priority rather than its taste. Printability is when a machine manufacturer asks you to cover up their machine’s failings through polymer chemistry or additives. Printability is a lie. A 3D printer manufacturer telling us what materials to print and how is like an arsonist advising the fire department. I do not in the slightest doubt that there is real affinity and interest, but in the final analysis, our shared goal does diverge. You want a thing that makes your machine look good, and I want a thing that gives me the best parts and best properties.

5. Operator & Process Touched on above, the operator is mostly a creature of random habit. Part artist part scientist excelling at neither we blunder through misprint after misprint. Look I also thoroughly enjoyed the exploration and astronaut feeling of 3D printing initially. But, could we now make it humdrum and predictable? And Astronauts become astronauts through learning and stay alive through a process. We need the best processes, and we need these mapped and explained well.

One of the most prominent failure modes in desktop 3D printing is layer adhesion issues with your first layer. Often the cause of this is greasy fingers on the build platform. Clean the platform, and many first layer issues disappear. 3D printing would be much better if we all knew the best way to do certain things. Many misprints are also due to incorrect storage of PLA and moisture on it. There have to be processes for these kinds of seemingly ancillary but crucial things as well. The rote concentration and effort of processes correctly implemented by a knowledgeable operator working systematically will be tedious but will reduce failure rates for all of us.

6. FIle The STL needs to die in a fire, this much is certain. We need to have one good file type that can describe densities, colors, patterns and every bit of information in the voxel at every location. We also have to find ways of going from CAD directly to movement on the machine while also finding better ways to describe circles, triangles, and parts. A lot of CAD software changes the way your file works and a lot of information that we want in the file such as where it is from and how it can become parametric and what materials work how is absent. I’ve previously been a proponent of sDNA which essentially is an idea whereby an XML file format contains not only a description of the thing but the thing in all of its permutations in all of the available materials with the relevant settings and attribution and use information. We will need this eventually, and the sooner we get it, the better.

7. Toolpath, Melt Pool & Infill Toolpaths are not intelligent and can be optimized. Much more efficient ways to draw objects can be found. More research needs to be done as to how the nozzle moves and how this coupled with extrusion speed, wall slip effects, and nozzle diameter makes your print. If the laser would build a part with a different spot size or melt pool, then the consequences are enormous on the part. We need to be able to control where crystallization occurs (when and if it is intended to happen) and we need more control over the actual placement/melting in place of material. Once we can do that, then we can genuinely consider each print a unique material made for one application and can control for and optimize the qualities of that part at every voxel. Then we can also dynamically optimize infill patterns, shapes and make them dynamic as well. We could then design the sand, shape the mortar and use both to build a house by letting us determine the right properties at each voxel, also at each 3D infill space and also of the part as a whole through the modification of these three in concert.

8. Design Stuck in our Voronoi ways we’ll hopefully look back at this as a quaint time of salt of the earth people. Like how we now look at times when only truckers wore trucker hats and New York didn’t look like a German U-Boot crashed off of Greenpoint. Form follows function is such a universally held truism in design that few actually practice it. But, by starting from the utility of a thing, how long it needs to exist and what it needs to do we can then go to a functional shape. Using FEA and other techniques more designers and engineers will start to make objects that are made for a purpose. We will need to get our heads around optimal weight saving techniques, how to integrate multiple functionalities in one object, how to reduce part count, how to iterate and test designs. We will have to look again at textures, topology optimization and how this works in conjunction with the possible and desirable. Design and engineering from 3D printing will be many iterations, many failures agile engineering affair. If this is done in conjunction with those above to control for the 3D Printer Octagon then we will have a 3D printed world. Have at it.